Press Conference: World's coral reefs on the brink: IUCN launches Red List of Coral Reefs Ecosystems, UN Convention on Biodiversity - COP 17

Hi everyone. So welcome to the press conference on the global coral reef assessment under the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems. The Red List of Ecosystems measures the risk of ecosystem collapse. Today we are presenting the first ever global assessment of coral reef ecosystems, and it was a huge undertaking to arrive at this point. More than 250 experts from around the world made this assessment possible, and they come from over 80 countries and territories. And this includes our partners. So alongside the International Union for Conservation of Nature, IUCN, we have the University of Melbourne, Cordio East Africa, and regional nodes of the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. To introduce you to our experts who are here to outline the findings of this global assessment and to answer your questions, we have Suzanne Pedersen, who's the director of the IUCN Center for Science and Knowledge. We have David Obura, co-chair of the IUCN SSC Coral Specialist Group and director of Cordio East Africa. Michelle Gutscher of the University of Melbourne and Cordio East Africa. and Emily Nicholson, IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Thematic Group Lead from the IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management. So over to you, Suzanne.

Thank you and welcome. I'm very pleased to launch this global IUCN Red List of Coral Reef Ecosystems Assessment. But its findings are alarming. It must serve as a renewed call to action on climate change and other drivers of biodiversity loss to save the world's coral reef ecosystems. This project was a collaboration across IUCN partners and members, drawing on IUCN's strength as a convener of scientists and practitioners. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is one of IUCN's flagship programs. Along with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the two Red Lists provide the most comprehensively available information on risks to biodiversity worldwide. The Red Lists also underpin two headline indicators for the Global Biodiversity Framework. Together with the Red List of Coral Species, which David Obura will talk about shortly, the Red List give a crucial understanding about the risks to coral reefs and actions needed to reduce those risks. The timing of this Red List of Ecosystems Assessment is crucial. At this biodiversity conference, Parties are reviewing collective progress towards the global biodiversity framework and debating how to strengthen their commitments and action. Next month, parties are meeting again at the UN Climate COP. The message to Climate COP is clear. This assessment shows just how urgent cutting greenhouse gas emissions is to prevent ecosystems loss and the worst effects of the biodiversity crisis. We risk losing coral reef ecosystems. This will not only affect biodiversity, it will have devastating impacts across sectors, especially on the people who depend on coral reef ecosystems for their livelihoods and food security. and you will hear much more from our scientists. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Susanne. So, Michel, over to you. So, Michel Guttke, who has led as the scientific lead for this assessment.

Thank you. Thank you very much for coming. In this Global Red List of Ecosystems Assessment, we assessed the risk of collapse of 127 shallow water coral reef ecosystems, which provides near complete global coverage of coral reefs. We found that 96% of coral reef ecosystems are critically endangered, which means they are at extremely high risk of collapse in the next 50 years. We also found that one coral reef ecosystem is already collapsed in Western Galapagos. Now, a collapsed coral reef ecosystem is one which has lost most, if not all, of its hard corals and has transformed into a different ecosystem, one which has lost most of its biodiversity and plentiful biodiversity and is now dominated by a few tough survivors, rubble, and algae. This assessment looked at multiple ways in which an ecosystem can degrade and collapse, including looking at observed changes that have happened over the last 50 years, as well as projected future changes. This gives us a full picture of why coral reef ecosystems are threatened and the possible actions we can take to reduce their risk. The frequency of intense marine heat waves that can cause bleaching is the main driver of risk of coral reef ecosystems under a moderate climate scenario in the future. This trend has already started. In the last 10 years, we've seen coral bleaching events impact more and more reefs each time and occur more frequently, and already this year, we have the risk of a super El Nino. For 24% of these critically endangered ecosystems, this result is based on both observed changes to date, as well as future projected changes due to climate change. For the remaining 72% of ecosystems which are critically endangered, These are based just on projected future warming. That means that we have not yet seen the same level of damage across these reefs, but the future threat of climate change is looming and severe, and that poses a very high risk to the survival of these ecosystems. For the 72% of ecosystems, it shows us that much of the risk is not yet fully materialized. And this gives us a critical window for action, for us to scale up conservation efforts and climate action to prevent the worst outcomes from occurring. Our assessment also looked at other threats beyond climate change, such as overfishing, which around the world is shown to pose a great pressure on coral reefs. This tells us that local action can still have a significant impact in steering the future of coral reefs, including expanding and improving the effectiveness of marine protected areas, reducing pollution from many different sources that impact coral reefs, as well as increasing protection to other ecosystems that can build coastal resilience. All of these are targets for countries under the Global Biodiversity Framework. We have reached a pivotal point for the future of coral reefs. The actions we take over the next few years will determine what these ecosystems look like at the end of the century, whether they persist as we have known them, or whether they transform into a different ecosystem, which is worth less to both nature and people. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Michelle. So over to you, David. So David Obura, who is the co-chair of the IUCN Species Survival Commission Coral Specialist Group.

Thank you very much. So it's my pleasure to present to you some complementary results to this Red List of ecosystems that Michelle, Dr. Grutke, has just explained. And this is from the Red List of Species, which is a longer, more established index for species. And we have already undertaken this for coral species back in 2008 through the Coral Specialist Group. And so we produced an update that was released in late 2024, but we added some new calculations about the rate of decline. and some new analysis. And this was just published in the journal Nature on the 15th of October, so just a week ago. Now, we found that based on data up till about 2020, it takes many years to produce these results. We assessed the status of 892 coral species, of which 774 had enough data to be assessed. The rest were data deficient. And we found that nearly half of these species are threatened at high risk of extinction, elevated risk of extinction. That means they were under the vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered categories under the Red List of Species. But perhaps very importantly, we found that the risk of extinction for these species increased over the time periods that we've been assessing. So from 1998 to 2008, the period of the first assessment, and then from 2008 to 2024, the increase in extinction risk had accelerated. We used the Red List Index, which is one of the headline indicators of the Global Biodiversity Framework, to show this rate of change in extinction risk. And it changed from 0.96 in 1998 to 0.89 in 2008 to 0.74 in 2024. Now these numbers of course don't mean a lot out of context, but this index measures from 1 to 0 of the relative extinction risk of species. Now we found that there was higher threat in the Caribbean than the Indo-Pacific. This is not surprising because it's a smaller system with fewer species in it, as well as in some high latitude isolated regions, in particular the Brazilian ecoregions where coral species have a high level of endemicity to that region, and also some seas around Japan. We also found there was higher level of threat in one of the families that are very important for reef building, the Acroporidae, which are fast-growing species. Their highest diversity is in the Coral Triangle region in the Indonesian-Philippine area, and 78% of the species in this family were found to be endangered. They still occur in that region, they still have important reef-building functions, and therefore that region still shows very little decline in coral species, or in coral cover, sorry, as a result of past bleaching events, as we've seen in global results. But because of the high level of threat now, of course, they may approach a threshold in coming years with future warming and show levels of decline in coming decades. So we we've put out these two results very close to each other. We're very glad to have been able to release this results close to the release of the Red List of Ecosystems. So we can help show and provide to the Convention the complementarity of species and ecosystem results because each of these can offer governments different solutions and opportunities for management in addressing the future threats. And I think one of the most important things, as mentioned already by Dr. Goodca for the Red List of Ecosystems, is that a lot of these threats are based on future projections of climate change and warming, and so there is a lot of opportunity for action to redress these threats and to build resilience before these threats materialize. So, thank you.

Thank you very much, David. So, over to Emily Nicholson now, who is the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Thematic Group Lead from the IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management.

Thank you. And just for further context, in addition to my role within IUCN's Commission on Ecosystem Management, I also co-chair the advisory group on the global report, on the preparation of the global report on collective progress towards a global biodiversity framework, which is a big part of the discussion at the moment and the negotiations on the global review here at COP. So the global report revealed substantial gaps in data and knowledge. In particular, many countries reported that they lacked ecosystem data, and particularly for marine and coastal ecosystems. This meant that they were not able to report on the headline indicators, such as a red list of ecosystems. But also, they didn't have this information, this data, this knowledge in their hands to help them make decisions that could implement the global biodiversity framework. We can't reduce risk to biodiversity unless we know which areas are most threatened and why. This global Red List of Ecosystems assessment for coral reef ecosystems helps fill this gap. So, briefly, I'll just talk about how the Red List of Ecosystems complements the Red List of Threatened Species. in a few different ways, but in particular, rather than just looking at individual ecosystems one by one, it thinks about the whole ecosystem with all its species, the interactions between those species, and the environment that they live in. And so we're able to look at a much more holistic approach. And this complements the approach of identifying threatened species and the actions that they need to prevent extinction. So both are needed to make good decisions. So the global red list of coral reef ecosystems provides the evidence base for urgent action, and it fills this role in three ways. Firstly, as a global analysis, it provides a comprehensive and consistent picture of how coral reef ecosystems are faring around the world. So we can examine how threats are affecting coral reef ecosystems differently in different places. We can look at the highlight areas of greatest risk and greatest need and also prioritise action. Secondly, countries can use this global assessment directly Or they can apply the data and the methods and bring them together with local experts, local knowledge and data, and apply that to their own coral reef ecosystems and undertake their own national assessments. And we as partners and collaborators can support them in this through coordination, capacity building, and technology sharing. And then finally, in doing so, this gives governments and other actors in other sectors, and in particular, Indigenous peoples and local communities, the information they need to support decision making for planning, action, and monitoring. And this will help them meet the global biodiversity targets for restoration and protection, and also to report on headline indicators like A1, the Red List of Ecosystems. So just to summarise, the evidence base in this global coral reef Red List of Ecosystems assessment highlights which ecosystems are at greatest risk and why, and the threats that are affecting them. And this should and must catalyze action for the benefit of both biodiversity and the people who depend on these ecosystems. Thanks.

Thank you very much, Emily. So it's over to you now for questions. If you could give your name and outlet, please, and which of the experts you would like to direct your question at?

Hi, my name is Maria Monica Monsalve. I come from Colombia, from an outlet that is called El Pais America. It is original from Spain, but I work for the Latin American Bureau. So I was wondering if you could explain a little bit of what's happening in the Brazil coastal area of the coral reefs and in the Caribbean. If it's something different happening with these ecosystems that is maybe not happening in other coral reefs around the world. Thank you.

Yes, thank you. I won't be able to give you very detailed sort of analysis of that. But basically the Caribbean region as you can see from this map is a much smaller region or the whole tropical Atlantic biome is a much smaller biome than the Indo-Pacific. So it has fewer species And then particularly for the Caribbean, it's very surrounded by coastlines where a lot of the pressures come from. So the aggregation of different impacts has happened earlier in the Caribbean and the West Atlantic than has happened for most of the Indo-Pacific. And so that's nutrients and sedimentation from land as well as fishing. Diseases have been very impactful in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. A lot of them come from microbes that come from land or that come from fresh water or from human origins as well, as we're beginning to understand more. And then added on top of those, you have the warming in the last 10, 20 years has aggregated the threats to those systems. And because it's smaller and more vulnerable, they're being impacted a lot more quickly than the Indo-Pacific regions.

Yeah, and I'll just add to that saying that In these regions, so Brazil was assessed as a region with multiple ecosystems, coral reef ecosystems within it, and some of them have shown significant declines so far, as have some of the coral reef ecosystems within the Caribbean as well. So some two of the regions with some of the most impacted coral reef ecosystems to date.

And if I can point you to more specific answers to your colleague to your right can give you the precise answers later on.

Hello, my name is Vincent Romera. I'm working for the French NGO UMI and I was in Sulawesi Tenggara in 2024, Sulawesi Tenggara, so southeast Sulawesi. And I worked on nickel impact nickel mining impact in Indonesia. So as you probably know, the Coral Triangle region is currently under significant threat from the nickel industry, which releases large quantities of heavy metals into the water, notably cadmium, hexavalent chromium, and a lot of other heavy metals, which has a serious effect on corals, particularly those of the Acropora genus. My question is, Will the IUCN take a stand on this issue and alert the public to the risks faced by the Coral Triangle's reefs due to the nickel industry?

So thank you for the question. I think we can probably comment-- well, from the scientific perspective, I think that's what our experts-- the expertise we have here. in terms of sort of positioning on the specific site. I think that's something we can maybe follow up afterwards. I don't know if someone would like to address just the, you know, the issue.

Yeah, thank you. So the issue of toxicity to corals and other marine species is a well-known problem. but one that hasn't been studied in a lot of detail across wide areas. So there have been quite a few studies in the 80s and 90s, I think, on toxicity, particularly related to mining in the Coral Triangle region, Indonesia and Solomon Islands and so on. But we're unable in these global assessments to really pick up that data because we don't have comparable data from many other places as well. So we can't really compare the threat from one place to another in a comprehensive way. So that's much better done at local and national levels. So we know those issues are very important, but our assessment wasn't able to use that information as a measure of the threats. So going to national actors is one of the most important things to do there to try and work out what the degree of risk is from metal toxicity and mining, for example, compared to other threats that we were able to assess in our global assessments.

Hi, I'm a journalist from India. My question is to David, and maybe others also, if it is relevant. So we know that the plastic pollution is a major threat to coral reefs. But last year, the world failed to reach an agreement on plastic production. And we know that EPR is not taking off in many of the countries. So you said 78% of the fast-growing species are under threat. And there is a very narrowing window for restoration of the-- or saving the remaining ones. How important is it to reach an agreement, and how fast should we do it?

Yeah, so again, on this kind of thing, so we weren't able to incorporate the threat from plastic pollution in these global assessments because we just don't have the data to be able to assess that. We know it is very important and all pollutants, particularly with the threat of warming that we're facing, that we're having incorporated, the amount of pollution that species face does impact on their ability to recover from these threats. So to the extent that these agreements are important for managing these multiplying threats and novel entities, they're called in some circles, these are very important. So we certainly, these results do point towards a need for urgent action on all the threats against that are affecting corals.

Thank you. I was wondering if you would be able to tell us more about the species that have data deficiency. Is there any pattern about where those species are located or what kind of species those are? And secondly, I'm from an NGO in Norway, so I was just wondering if cold water corals ever came into the equation for your assessment. Thanks.

So just on the red list of ecosystems, so we this assessment purely focuses on shallow water coral reef ecosystems, doesn't consider mesophotic coral reef ecosystems or some of the deep, deep water, cold water coral ecosystems. So that's under the red list of ecosystems, under the red list of species for corals. Did you consider cold water?

Yes, so as a general pattern in the coral specialist group, we started work around shallow water and reef building corals, and so we haven't had the breadth of capacity to look at cold water or deep water corals. Under the new leadership, we're beginning to build that capacity up. And there have been some regional assessments of cold water corals, I believe around European seas. I think IUCN officers have helped do that but we haven't had global assessments yet. And in terms of the data deficiency in general for coral species, so we do have a map in the paper that we published showing the proportion of data deficient species. It's surprisingly uniform across most of the world, it's actually between just 1 to 2% data of species we didn't have sufficient data to act on, except for in the Coral Triangle region where there's a lot of very high diversity, a lot of endemics, and then in more remote regions as well where there's higher endemicity, where there's a higher proportion of data deficient species up to about.

13%. And I'll just add for the ecosystem assessment we had out of the 100, sorry, the 127 ecosystems, four ecosystems were considered data deficient. So really highlighting where investment into data collection needs to go to build up that ecosystem picture.

Hi. I wondered if the assessment looked at any bright spots or are there any bright spots, any positive elements that came out of the assessment? And in that regard, so for example, were there any findings around climate refugia for corals? And if so, what, you know, what conditions are making that happen? Thank you.

Yeah, thank you. So The, I suppose, the scale, spatial scale of the assessments, we look at broadly, broad ecosystems and look at how environmental patterns have changed. So we did look at how heating has changed over the last 50 years across this ecosystem. So there are certainly some ecosystems which show less change in terms of warming. In terms of the future, almost all of, in fact, 96% of the ecosystems showed that they are going to warm to levels which result in a critical risk to the survival of those ecosystems. But we do have the underlying data within that to understand which ecosystem so far the environment hasn't changed as much and which coral reef ecosystems we haven't seen the level of degradation on the ground just yet. So a lot of the risk is based on this looming threat of climate change. But we do know across the world what ecosystems haven't changed as much so far. So we can't pinpoint specifically what those bright spots are in terms of individual coral reefs. But broadly across the ecosystem, we can understand a little bit about how that ecosystem is faring. So just showing this map so you can see. This shows the level of degradation we've observed across all these ecosystems. So 24% of the ecosystems are critically endangered due to both observed change and future climate threats. But you can see there's a lot more nuance based on the impacts we've seen to date.

Yeah, thank you. If I can add a bit of nuance to that, as Michelle has said, is that these assessments are quite broad brush and we combine a huge amount of data down into one final result for each of these ecosystems or each of the species. And even where you have a result of critically endangered, for example, what that means in our analyses is that perhaps out of all the sites or the area in an ecosystem or a region, 80% have undergone a very large amount of decline, which means there are 20% that haven't gone through that decline. And at that scale, many of those 20% might be these refuges or bright spots we can identify. And so one of the main things that we've done in our region in Eastern Africa, having done this analysis five or six years ago, is trying to show the governments and to protected area managers and communities what the differences are amongst their reefs that give them an opportunity to invest in management or restoration and other actions on the ground.

And just to add to that, as David said, these assessments have a huge amount of data within them, and they're synthesised down to a headline result of critically endangered. If you look under the hood and you can really dig into the data that contributes to this, this wealth of data, and that's where you can start to look at more spatial variation, particularly for past changes, and dig into why an ecosystem is threatened, not just its overall risk status. And so it's not just the overall assessment outcome, it's this whole synthesis of knowledge and the bringing together of the experts to work together to synthesise that knowledge. It is one of the key benefits of these assessments.

I don't know if we have time for one last question or have one over there.

Thank you for all the information. I was wondering if genetically engineering for the coral reefs is possible for climate change. I mean, can we make them resilient to it? Or even if we could Would you consider that as natural? So in your list, will it still be continued to be in critically endangered?

Yeah, so thank you. That's an important question because of course a lot of research around coral reefs is very aware of the challenges that we're facing, particularly from warming and the limits that corals have of adaptation to warming and their resistance levels to certain temperatures. So genetic engineering is a very strong label to use, but there's a huge range of studies that are being done now looking at breeding of corals, collecting corals where they have resisted high temperatures, putting them into other regions bringing them together so they breed and maybe their offspring will have higher resistance. And these are practices that have been done for thousands of years, of course, in farming and agriculture and livestock. And there are high-tech experimentation going on through different university systems around the world. None of these experiments have produced any key, I guess, successes that we can see in the field in terms of being able to successfully sort of get corals to be more resistant and for that resistance to project into their offspring and into the future. But there is a lot of research on that and some of it will be very promising. And one of the key things to do is of course to have very strong ethical sort of boundaries around what can be done and then of course in the field to see how we can make this the good solutions most accessible to the places that need it most.

Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you.