Agrifood systems in the current global context: opportunities, risks and solutions (HLPF 2026 Side Event)

Good afternoon, everybody.

Good afternoon.

I know there's a lot of competing events. Please feel free, for those of you that are way in the back, to come forward and sit around the table. There's space for you. I wish to welcome you to this event at the High-Level Political Forum, the Agri-Food Systems in the Current Global Context: Opportunities, Risks, and Solutions. My name is Angelica Jacome, and I am the Director of the FAO Liaison Office with the United Nations, and it's a pleasure to welcome you here today.

Thank you.

As noted in our concept note, we recently had the ECOSOC Special Meeting on Safeguarding Energy and Supply Flow, Supporting Global Development Through International Cooperation in May of 2026, where a group of stakeholders, including members, gathered to examine the impacts of the disruptions of energy and supply flows on, among other things, development and food security. This highlighted the vulnerability of agri-food systems. I mean, FAO has been doing a lot of analytical work, and many of you can follow it online on our Middle East in Focus on our website. And there's also, at this moment, a very high probability of El Niño, and we've also been doing a lot of work together with our colleagues here around the table. So, without further ado, I'm not going to stay long on this. I just wanted to share with you a bit of an introduction, and I'm going to pass over to Mr. Máximo Torero Cullens, the Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO, who will set the scene for today's session.

Over to you, Máximo.

Thank you. Thank you very much, Angelica. And I will do a brief photograph of where we are and the challenges that we are facing. So let me start first with the numbers that on the 21st will change, because these are the numbers of 2024. The number of people in hunger in 2024 were 673 million, 8.7%. were down from 8.7% in 2022, but it's still at very high levels. Also, if we look at severe food insecurity and moderate food insecurity, we moved from 828 million in severe food insecurity and 2.3 billion in moderate or severe food insecurity. And as we heard earlier this morning, 2.6 billion people don't have access to a healthy diet, but again, This is the number of 2020— the SOFI of 2025. All these numbers will be updated, so you can connect to it, to the launch of the SOFI, which will happen on the 21st of July in Rome. Now, we have also what we call acute food insecurity, which is the short-term food insecurity, what we use to respond to emergencies, and the number is more than 266 million people which are facing acute food insecurity. The important thing is that the bigger player, the bigger driver, is conflicts— 147 million people— followed by weather and climate— 87 million people— and economic slowdowns and downturns. So what we have seen is that the compound crisis has become the norm rather than the exception, and those are the things that in the short term we need to cope with anticipatory action and the work we do on emergency response. Now, this sector, these agrifood systems that create food and try to reduce hunger and, in the short term, reduce acute food insecurity, also affects our environment and creates some inefficiencies, what we call normally hidden costs or hidden economic costs. And our publication, the SOFA, published for 2 years the quantification of those hidden costs, and they are around $11.6 trillion US dollars, which is 10% of the global GDP. Now, if you look at the agrifood system distribution in the graph in the middle, in the bar graph, you will see that the biggest part of them, $8.1 trillion, is on health, very linked to access to healthy diets and to the affordability of them and the cost of the healthy diets. And then we have $3 billion, which is related to environmental externalities. The rest are what we call social externalities. And of course, the composition varies region by region and depending on the income of the countries, depending on their share of the GDP. But it's important to understand that we produce something good, which is linked to the right to food, and at the same time, this sector creates these externalities that we need to minimize and we need to keep improving the way we operate. Now, in this complex agrifood system, we are facing significant challenges which are linked to the risks and uncertainties that this sector is facing. And these risks and uncertainties can be split into 3 groups: first, on the sector itself; then, the macroeconomic impacts; and then, the humanitarian impacts. So, on the sector itself, we know that there are risks affecting input supplies, and we are seeing that today because of the Strait of Hormuz. We see trade, which is also impacting how we produce in the agrifood systems, and we have trade which is being impacted also by geopolitical issues and export restrictions, which could impact how much access we will have to markets. But then one area which has become extremely important is the logistical part and how the logistical part— the ports, the roads, the storage, and the mobility of food across and within borders— is becoming also a very important challenge. Not only the Strait of Hormuz later, before the Black Sea, before that the drought that affected the circulation in the Panama Canal, and what happens in the Red Sea and in the Suez Canal. So the complexity of the logistical part is something that we need to look at because all these 3 elements will affect production and as a result of that will affect prices. And also one element that we need to bring up in the attention of the system is how the diseases will evolve and how they are evolving because of climate also, and how we have to be prepared for those pests and diseases. To handle all these risks, we have developed what we call the riskmonitor.fao.org that tries to tackle all these risks in detail, especially to look at where the probabilities are extremely high and where we need to find solutions to that problem. In the macroeconomic side— and I am very happy to have our Treasury department here next to me, from Malawi. On the macroeconomic side, outside of energies and the interlinkages of energy, we have debt, growth, and exchange rates— issues that are affecting the capacities of countries of being able to cover their food import bill, and they are facing debt distress, which makes it more difficult for them to get the resources they require. But also, there is the issue of contamination of land through mines, also nuclear contamination, that could remove land for 10 years from the way we produce. The humanitarian part, food and migration, is extremely important and we need to look at that. Now, with all these risks, we also have water stress and intensity and frequency of climate events increasing. So that's the sector that we operate and that's the sector that we have to face today. Now, geopolitical competition is reshaping global agrifood trade and is mostly now being shaped by geopolitics, which is making us to lose the importance of comparative advantages and we are moving to a world where value chains are not just in time but are just in case, meaning they depend on what event will happen, what geopolitical event could happen or what shock could happen, I will respond differently. As you may imagine, that creates fragmentation of value chains, but also creates a cost, an efficiency cost on trade, on how we can move commodities around the world and how we can position to be as efficient as possible. So the just-in-time is being moved now to the just-in-case, and it's something we need to look at carefully. Now, at the FAO, with the help of my colleagues and the modelling teams led by David Laborde in his division, we have been looking at different risks that we have to model to try to see what will happen. And here I'm just bringing 3 of those risks. Biological threats, and this is specifically the case of soybean Asia rust as an example, which already has touched the US, and this is affecting the GMO crop. So if this gets into a GMO crop, it will expand immediately, and this will impact yields enormously. So we need to look at solutions to that, and Bayer is working on that. which could reduce the potential cost because it will depend on the velocity of replication. But again, it tells us a vulnerability that we have. Second, of course, are nuclear threats. As I mentioned before, they could impact land and they could impact food supply. And the third one is the logistical threats, which we are living them every day now. One day it's closed, the next day it's opened, the next day it's partially open. Oil prices go down. Today, oil prices of Brent oil is around $80-something.

$80-something.

per barrel from $70 that was before. So we need to look at all of those at the same time. Now, what this means is that we need to bring all the potential resilience mechanisms in place so that we can increase our capacity to cope with these risks. And this goes from genetic materials. For example, if there is a disease affecting wheat or maize, CIMMYT is the one that has the gene bank that could help us to bring a variety that will help us to resolve and to create the resistance to those diseases. In the case of GMOs, it's the case of the investments that Bayer is doing and others are doing. But again, this is important because it will help us to have biodiversity to cope with this. Also, it is important to increase exposure to supply shocks of the breadbaskets and see how we can measure them, and also to find alternative trade routes and alternative mechanisms for us to be able to cope with what we call the logistical problem. Now, this means that we need to track prices, we need to look at the relationship between the energy prices and the fertilizer prices. And this brings me to the topic that is affecting us right now, where the math is very simple, which is basically what is happening because of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. So one-third of the inputs to one-quarter of all the key inputs for the agri-food system are removed from the market. That means that we have a supply shock of an enormous proportion that we need to cope with. Why? Because prices will increase of those inputs and that will affect what you see in the dotted box. It will affect fertilizer prices, it will affect energy prices, it will affect seeds prices because hybrid seeds require nitrogen fertilizer, and it will affect irrigation because around 70% of the pumping for irrigation is done with diesel. So if diesel moves from 70 to 80 or 70 to 100, this will impact irrigation. Now imagine that context in a time where we have also the potential El Niño coming that will be a very strong El Niño. If I have less inputs, I have less water, or I have extreme temperatures, my vulnerability will increase. That will affect commodity prices and that will affect the way we operate. So I don't want to go into the details, but let me move quickly to what we call the recommendations, and we will share the PowerPoint with you. So the way we cope with this type of situation is basically focusing on 3 time horizons: the short term, the medium term, and the long term. Specifically, in the case of the Strait of Hormuz, it's essential because it's inputs, and in agriculture what matters is the crop calendar. So if we don't comply with the crop calendar that we cannot change, We will have a problem. We already have a problem on the first phase of the previous season, which has been using less inputs, and we have seen that because the demand for urea and for phosphates has reduced substantially. That means that that will have a consequence on yields. So in the short term, what we need to do is to find alternative trade routes as much as we have—

can.

We have countries that were not exporting that now can export, and we can do that, but that will marginally resolve the problem. Remember, this is a supply shock, and when you have a supply shock, you need to adjust. The worst we can do is to put horizontal subsidies to energy or to fertilizers because it will be regressive. We need to reduce the demand, and our focus should be on the most vulnerable, and that's where social protection programmes will help. That's where we need to help the humanitarian deployment and the logistical part of the humanitarian work, which is being impacted because especially of transportation routes and oil prices. But also we need to avoid export restrictions. That is central of the inputs and in the future of potential commodities that will be affected. We have a lot of concerns on rice, on durum wheat that are being impacted substantially and will be affected in the next months. In the medium term, our focus is liquidity of farmers. Farmers are facing significant challenges today. We need to offer them financial lines of credit that will give them some grace period of 6 months and for 2 to 3 years. That's not so complex to do with formal farming, but it's more complex to do with informal farming. There we need to work with them to associate them through cooperatives or farmer associations so that they can access these lines of credit. And for the countries which are in stress, remember, the second block of risks— we need to help them to find— to give them access to balance of payments resources so that they can cover, in this period of emergency, the gap of the food import bill and the gap of the input import bill. That is extremely essential. In the long term, where we see a significant potential is first to find a way to promote market resilience and contingency planning for inputs. This is the second shock in a row that we have on input prices, and it's a way that we need to think something similar to what the International Energy Agency can do, which basically they can release stocks of oil in the case of excessive volatility, of excessive price spikes of oil. In the case of fertilizers, we don't have that, and we need to build the infrastructure for something like that, but we need to be very careful, very science-based and evidence-based so that we don't make mistakes and create something that will distort markets. But one thing that impacted us enormously was the issue of pumping, as I said before. This is a great opportunity for banks to create a diversification of the energy being used in the agrifood systems, to bring solar energy and other ways to be able to replace Brent oil use in pumping, so that we are more sustainable, and we diversify our energy source. What we have seen at the global level, we have not seen at the level of the agrifood systems, and that's something that needs to change. And we also need to innovate to make cost-effective green ammonia, which is a good replacement for nitrogen, and also biofertilizers, which are not too costly, but they have a lot of standards that we need to comply, and they also require that we know the soils and soil practices to make it effective. But we need to understand that biofertilizers require— can only replace between 15 to 20% of chemical fertilizers. So the balance is important. We cannot go to extremes because we have seen countries that did that and had a serious problem after that. So again, these are some of the main points that we want to talk today. I stop there. I am a little bit over my time. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you very much, Maximo, for providing the overview of the numbers, including of acute food insecurity and the hidden costs of the inefficiencies of agri-food systems. You also emphasize some of the challenges in this moment of risk and uncertainties to the food and agricultural sector, to the macroeconomic impact, and also the humanitarian. I think we'll be hearing a little bit more of that from our colleague from WFP. All this in a context of water stress and climate change that is happening. You highlighted how the geopolitical shifts are making value chains from just-in-time to just-in-case, highlighting also 3 major threats: the biological, nuclear, and logistical, which is where we are today in this impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Why this is very difficult to tackle because the timing of the crop calendars, there's no viable workaround for now, and the indirect channels. You also, in your last slide, shared with us some policy options in the short, medium, and long term to mitigate the risks. Thank you very much for that. It is now my pleasure to move to our panel discussion, where we'll start off with some member perspectives. Here, we'll start off with Mr. Cliff Chiyunda, Secretary to the Treasury of the Ministry of Finance and decentralization of Malawi. Sir, over to you.

Thank you very much. Your Excellencies, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, I'll talk a little bit in the context of our country. Malawi recognizes that resilient and sustainable agrifood systems are fundamental to achieving the sustainable development goals and the aspirations of Malawi Vision 2063, which is our national development blueprint. Malawi remains the backbone— agriculture remains the backbone of our economy, providing livelihoods for the majority of our population while contributing significantly to food security, employment, industrial development, and also export earnings. However, the sector continues to face multiple challenges arising from climate change, global market volatility, rising input costs, and also recurring weather-related shocks. And citing, you know, within the context of Malawi, last year alone, 4 million people were food insecure, due to weather-related shocks like cyclones, and going forward, this may worsen due to the impending El Niño, which has been predicted within the region. And the situation is further being aggravated by the Iran war, which already we have seen a soaring in terms of fertilizer prices. Which makes a very big input into the subsidy programme, the food subsidy programme, which we as a country run. And we think that going forward with these particular challenges, the situation may worsen in terms of those particular vulnerable groups of people who will be in need of food. But despite these challenges, Malawi takes the evolving global context as an opportunity to transform its agrifood systems into a catalyst for inclusive economic growth, resilience, and sustainable development. Amidst the current turbulent economic environment, the government of Malawi recognizes the unwavering efforts that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, has put in place to support various sustainable food systems in Malawi and also transform the agriculture system. For example, Malawi is a beneficiary of the South-South Cooperation Program, through which Malawi is developing the banana value chain under the One Country, One Priority Product initiative. Other similar initiatives as well being implemented by FAO in Malawi include the Southern Africa Development Community, SADC, Regional Agricultural Policy, which is under design at the moment, under development. And also One Health National Action Plan, which is a multi-million dollar initiative for 2026 up to 2029. El Niño mitigation as well is also another area where FAO is coordinating emergency interventions such as local climate adaptation measures to protect agricultural livelihoods in central and southern Malawi affected by prolonged dry spells and water shortages and also cyclones over the past 2 years. Also, FAO is supporting Malawi in climate-smart agriculture through technical extension services and also community-based farmer field schools, which are very critical to supporting the agriculture system and the agri-food systems in Malawi. Further, government recognizes that efficient markets are essential for agricultural transformation. Malawi is also advancing reforms to strengthen commodity marketing systems, reduce post-harvest losses, and also improve price transparency through the establishment of the National Commodity Exchange. What we call Natcomex. We find that a lot of food that we produce finds its way out and no proceeds are coming back to the country. So as a result, we are setting up this commodity exchange platform whereby our products could be transacted, sold through this particular system. The country is also promoting agro-processing and export diversification to increase the value of agricultural products, create decent jobs, and also enhance foreign exchange earnings. Moving forward, our country also believes that transforming agrifood systems requires stronger international cooperation with development partners, the private sector, research institutions, and also farming communities themselves. Therefore, developing countries need increased access to affordable climate finance, technological transfer, innovative financing mechanisms, and also fair international trade systems. That enable value addition and greater participation in global agricultural value chains. Malawi therefore reaffirms its commitment to building resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agri-food systems that will improve food security and nutrition, create employment, generate foreign exchange for the country, and also reduce poverty. and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals while leaving no one behind. I thank you for your attention.

Thank you. Thank you very much, Mr. Chunda, for sharing with us a bit about the situation in Malawi, sharing with us the vision of Malawi 2063. 63, how, as many least developed countries, Malawi agriculture is the backbone of the Malawian economy. You mentioned some of the challenges faced by your agri-food systems from the global market, the rise in input costs, and climate shocks, of course, all exacerbated by the challenges presented with the Strait of Hormuz and an impending El Niño coming. You also shared with us how there's an opportunity to transform these agri-food systems to provide this economic growth, resilience, and overall sustainable development, supported by many of the colleagues around the table and others from the international community to implement El Niño mitigation measures. Also, you shared a few things that Malawi is doing about a commodity exchange platform, agro-processing, export diversification. You highlighted the key role of international cooperation in increasing access to climate and, finance, technology to support the transformation to more resilient and sustainable agrifood systems. Thank you very much. It is now my pleasure to give the floor to Ms. Stefania Fancelllo, Deputy Director-General for Development Cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy. Over to you.

Thank you very much. Let me start by expressing extend my appreciation to FAO for bringing us together in such a critical moment. And it's a pleasure to be part of this discussion on an issue that lies at the core of sustainable development, of course, food security and the resilience of the rural communities worldwide. As you know, for many years Italy has prioritized food security and sustainable transformation of agriculture system and its international agenda. Achieving sustainable transformation of the sector requires tackling the structural constraints that limit resilience through investment in sustainable agricultural production, water management, rural infrastructure, innovation, mechanization, and climate-smart solutions. It also means improving access to market, which was also mentioned, strengthening local institutions and creating the conditions for more diversified and sustainable agrifood value chains. Above all, in our vision, resilient food systems begin with people. Supporting smallholder farmers, empowering women and young people, and strengthening farmers' organizations remain essential to ensuring that agricultural transformation is locally driven and responsive to national priorities. This is the approach that we use in Italy and guides our development cooperation. Our program supports resilience, sustainability, and quality of agri-food value chains by combining agricultural production with investment in local capacities, sustainable livelihoods, livelihoods and market opportunities, thereby reducing structural vulnerabilities and strengthening resilience to future shocks. We are increasingly focusing our resources on large-scale, impact-oriented programs capable of delivering lasting transformation rather than fragmented interventions. But at the same time, we see public finance as a catalyst for for mobilizing additional investment, including private ones. Through a whole-of-society and a multi-stakeholder approach, we work with partner governments, development banks, international financial institutions, the private sector, civil society, and international organizations, starting from FIO and the other Rome-based agencies, to maximize national ownership, leverage complementarity resources, and achieve sustainable and long-term impact. I just want to mention a few examples that can explain our approach to these important issues. Recent developments in the Middle East were mentioned, and what we have done— they have highlighted the close link between energy markets, fertilizer availability, agricultural production, and global food security, and climate change is further amplifying this vulnerability by increasing pressure on natural resources and making food production more unpredictable. This is particularly concerning the most vulnerable and import-dependent countries, where higher fertilizer prices can reduce farmers' access to inputs, weaken food production, and increase food insecurity. Italy has taken swift action on fertilizers, recognizing their crucial role for agricultural productivity, food security, and economic stability, especially across Africa and the Mediterranean. Together with Mediterranean and European partners, regional countries, FAO, and the United Nations, Italy launched the Rome Coalition on Fertilizers to strengthen cooperation and promote resilient sustainable fertilizer supply chain. In addressing these challenges, our partnership with FAO remains central to monitoring global food markets and supporting the most vulnerable countries through evidence-based policies and programs that advance sustainable agricultural and resilient agrifood systems. One important example of FAO's work is the Agricultural Market Information System, AMIS. A platform that enhances transparency in global food markets and supports better policy coordination during periods of market uncertainty. We highly appreciated FAO's decision to expand its analytical work to include fertilizer markets, helping countries anticipate risks, strengthen preparedness, and build more resilient agri-food systems. There are other examples that we can carry out through other international organizations. One of them is a project, a very big project in coffee value chain called ACT Coffee Program led by UNIDO and founded by the Italian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. This program recognizes— recognized among the flagship initiative of the Mattei Plan and the Global Gateway at the European Union. Label aims to enhance the sustainability and competitiveness of African coffee value chain through training, technology transfer, climate resilience, and agro-industrial development. It was launched in 5 pilot countries: Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Malawi. So, what's important about this project? The project fosters partnership with several different actors and attracts co-financing from other international donors, such as multilateral development banks and the European Union. Another area where we are engaged is the World Farmer Market Coalition. Italy is working with FAO to support this global coalition, introducing Coldiretti's Campagna Amica farm-to-fork approach in a number of countries. This is, again, an example of cooperation with the private sector in order to create the direct involvement of farmers from our country to new professional figures in those countries that ask for development cooperation programs with us and make a transformative step in such an important sector for food system transformation. Another example that I would like to recall is that the Food Coalition proposed by the government of Italy, led by FAO— sorry. The Food Coalition is a global voluntary alliance and coordination mechanism open to all stakeholders who are interested in supporting coordinated action to safeguard food security and nutrition and promote sustainable agrifood system transformation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within this framework, Italy has supported several initiatives, such as an important project to safeguard livelihoods of wine producers and farmers in Ukraine. So as we look ahead, our commitment remains clear to work together in building resilient, inclusive and sustainable agrifood systems that create opportunities for rural communities and deliver lasting benefit for people and the planet. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much, Ms. Fancelllo, and particularly for emphasizing how the empowerment of women, youth, smallholders underpins the Italian cooperation in their quest to strengthen or help strengthen resilience, sustainability, and quality of agrifood systems. You shared with us how Italy is shifting its focus to large-scale impact delivery to reduce the fragmentation, where public finance has a catalytic role to increase finance, private finance. You stressed the complementarities among the different actors, which I think we have a full panel here which shares how that works. And you mentioned a few of of Italian initiatives, and I'll just mention some of them. For instance, the Rome Coalition on Fertilizers, where Italy has played an important role, has launched this in order to, let's say, mitigate a bit of the issues faced by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. You mentioned support to AMIS, and you referred to this as a great tool which FAO hosts, and some efforts under the Meteion Plan for instance, a coffee initiative involving private sector. So, thank you very much for this. It is now— with this complementarity discourse, it's now important to also bring in our colleagues from some of our agencies, funds, and programs across the table. There was some mention to humanitarian, and I think this is very important because we have our colleague next, our colleague Ali Reza Qureshi from WFP, who will share a little bit about the efforts that WFP is doing, and in particular, trying to divert or avoid that we continue to have the same humanitarian needs. Over to you, Ali.

Thank you very much, Angelica. Excellencies, distinguished colleagues, let me first begin by thanking FAO for organizing this timely and important event and for bringing us together around a challenge that is central to the 2030 Agenda. I think the presentation by Massimo is, I think, quite enlightening. We are seeing a rapidly evolving situation to a perfect storm, almost. We live in a world that produces enough food to feed everyone, yet today 266 million people face acute food insecurity across 47 countries, and recent analysis together with FAO suggests that ongoing market disruptions and economic volatility due to current crisis could push up millions more into acute hunger. So the challenge is not lack of food, but ensuring that food remains accessible, affordable, and available to all. At the same time, climate extremes, conflict, and economic instability are placing growing pressure on food systems worldwide. So, for many countries, access to affordable food depends not only on local production, but also on stability of global trade, energy, and fertilizer systems. And we have seen with the Strait of Hormuz what that really means in real terms. So, this reinforces the need for stronger and more resilient food systems. We must invest in the systems, institutions, and capacities that help reduce risk, protect livelihoods, keep markets functioning, and sustain development progress over the long term. From our perspective, there are 3 priorities that stand out, and as Angelica said, really what we would like to see is to see reduction in humanitarian needs. These 3 priorities are aligned to our goal of seeing a reduction in humanitarian needs over time. First and foremost, we must invest in preparedness before the crisis occurs. Preparedness is one of the smartest investments countries can make. As shocks become more frequent and interconnected, greater emphasis must be placed on anticipating risk and reducing their impact before they escalate into crisis. What does that require? Scaling up prearranged finance, including anticipatory action, early action, and disaster risk financing, so that support can be delivered before a humanitarian emergency makes it much more expensive to provide support to the communities. Timely information is equally important. Early warning systems and climate services enable governments, farmers, businesses, local communities to anticipate risk, reduce losses, and take informed action before shocks occur. Risk financing instruments, they're crucial, such as insurance solutions that can play an important role in helping governments and communities manage risks, protect livelihoods, and recover more quickly. Our experience demonstrates the value of this approach. Last year alone, we supported almost 5 million people across 45 countries. countries and provided over $380 million in financial protection through disaster risk programs. Since 2009, the insurance schemes have provided support to almost 23 million people and triggered over $100 million in payouts. So the case— this demonstrates that the case for investment is clear. Every dollar invested in anticipatory action can generate up to $7 in avoided losses. I think this is a key number that we must all remember as we look at this priority. We must strengthen food systems. That's our second key message. I think the recommendations provided by FAO earlier speak to the agenda on what needs to be done. From our perspective, what we see is inclusive and resilient systems can improve response efforts, reduce exposure to market volatility, absorb future shocks, and support local economies. How do we do that? We use a food systems approach, allowing assistance to achieve greater and more sustainable impact. Since 2020, we have invested more than $6.5 billion in local and regional procurement, including more than $3 billion in Africa alone, and delivered approximately $13 billion through cash-based assistance using cash transfers. Now, if these are used strategically, these investments can strengthen local markets, expand opportunities for producers and businesses, support local nutrition solutions, and generate lasting benefits for food systems, local economies, and nutrition outcomes. So, an area that we are increasingly protecting in this new geopolitical environment of human humanitarian aid. Third, and most important, is how do we scale partnerships and align evidence, finance, and collective action? Because the risks that we face are cross-sector, cross-border, and cross-institutions. It's not in the capacity of one organization, one institution to solve. So energy, water, climate, food, trade, finance systems— they're all connected today. Our responses must be connected as well. Countries need timely data, early warning, market intelligence, integrated analysis to guide decisions. I think they also need predictable, flexible, and well-targeted financing, including from IFIs, multilateral development banks, and partners, to turn evidence into action. This is where partnership is critical. like ours, the Rome-based agencies, our colleagues WMO, who's on the table, governments, IFIs, private sector, local actors, each bring distinct capabilities, but the challenge is to bring these capabilities together behind country-led priorities and practical solutions. That's where we need— there's work to be done by all of us. Excellencies, in summing this up, for us, the theme of this years, HLPF called for transformative, equitable, innovative, and coordinated action. Agri-food systems sit at the heart of that agenda. If we get this right, agri-food systems can do more than withstand today's shock. They can reduce poverty, improve nutrition, create jobs, empower communities, protect natural resources, and accelerate progress across the SDGs. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much, Ali, for presenting this overview. Here, you really focus on 3 priorities that WFP is bringing to the table. First is the preparedness before the crisis, calling on anticipatory action and rapid finance. Here, I would mention the Financing for Shock-Driven Food Crises Facility. which we work together with you and OCHA, and as Maximo had mentioned in his presentation, is supported by the Risk Monitor at FAO.org. Another priority is to strengthen agri-food systems, and you shared how WFP has made strategic investments in local and regional procurement aimed at multiple benefits across development outcomes. Lastly, the importance of scaling partnerships Something that we all recognize is we can't do it alone. We need to work together, and for this, we have to have timely data, risk monitoring, financing that complements country-led priorities. You also referred to some of the collaboration we have with the Rome-based agencies, but also with other UN agencies such as WMO and the private sector. and other actors across the table. Lastly, I think you drove it home with saying that it's time to get it right, and this is important for us if we're going to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. And last but not least on our panel, I'd like to welcome Ms. Laura Patterson, Head of Office of the World Meteorological Organization, WMO, office in New York, also our neighbor in DC1. Laura, over to you.

Thank you so much, Angelica. Thank you, thank you for the invite for WMO to participate today and to explain particularly one context that we're facing, which is El Niño. So El Niño is a naturally occurring coupled ocean-atmospheric circulation which develops in the tropical Pacific, but it has effects— but its effects are felt all across the globe. And on the 3rd of July, WMO confirmed that El Niño has developed and is forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event over the coming months, peaking around the turn of the year. WMO's latest El Niño update shows unusually high agreement between global producing centers on this outlook and gives us higher than usual confidence in the forecast. But El Niño is only just— is only one seasonal driver, and so it's important to assess seasonal outlooks which incorporate El Niño along with other relevant climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, of particular importance for the East African countries. And the latest seasonal outlooks indicate above-average temperatures across almost the entire globe over the coming months. Now extreme heat is something that we must get used to in our warming world, but El Niño brings an additional boost to temperatures almost everywhere. And so extreme heat is a particular risk in the medium term. There's also an increased likelihood of much drier than average conditions in parts of Southern Africa, Central America, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia, while wetter than average conditions are forecast in other regions. There's high— this is a high-confidence forecast, giving governments valuable time to prepare. And WMO is stepping up its efforts to publish updated seasonal information And we'll be issuing monthly El Niño updates now as part of our Global Seasonal Climate Update as this event evolves. It's also worth recognizing the context within which this El Niño event is unfolding. The last major El Niño occurred more than a decade ago, and in the 11 years since, we've recorded the 11 hottest years on record. This El Niño is developing on a warmer climate baseline than the world has ever experienced. Past El Niño events are no longer a reliable guide to future impacts. Some regions will face prolonged drought, others intense rainfall and flooding, and the risks of tropical cyclones will be altered in different regions. The pattern of impacts will not necessarily mirror previous events. We are in somewhat uncharted territory. For agri-food systems, this matters, as we've heard so clearly in the opening Climate shocks ripple through supply chains, trade, and food prices, with food import-dependent countries often feeling the impacts first. The value of seasonal forecasts lies in the time they create for governments, farmers, humanitarian agencies, and markets to prepare before impacts unfold. That time can mean the difference between managing risk proactively and responding to a crisis that's already taken hold. This is the opportunity that seasonal forecasting climate information services bring, although it's important to note that many countries still do not have adequate early warning systems and climate information services, and that's part of obviously what the WMO has been focusing on through the Early Warnings for All initiative with other UN partners. National meteorological and hydrological services, who are often responsible for producing seasonal forecasts, are also often underfunded and underutilized.

These four—

We should also recognize that these forecasts are only possible because of the global observing system. This is a networked system of ocean, atmospheric, and cryosphere observation stations internationally coordinated through WMO to meet agreed standards, and it's this system that makes predictions possible. However, significant gaps persist in the system. For example, the ocean observing system— and remember, El Niño starts in essentially in the Pacific Ocean, is suffering significant sustainability gaps. It's currently largely funded through individual research projects. No one country, you know, it's not coordinated through sovereigns. And typically it has been, you know, the one largest country that has supported this has now, you know, vocally said that they're pulling back all of their efforts. So there's a significant risk to the sustainability of our ability to monitor and predict El Niño. As far as global land surface observation networks go, they're also under significant strain, for example, and very unevenly distributed weather stations around the world. For example, there's more stations in Germany than the whole of Africa, and this affects the ability, of course, to predict these storms and climate patterns across Africa, but as our weather moves around the world, it affects our ability to predict these systems everywhere. An uncertain future of our observing system brings risk to our ability to predict and prepare for climate shocks like El Niño, and WMO is supporting efforts to address these gaps, notably through the creation of the Systematic Observations Financing Facility and also through co-sponsoring the Global Ocean Observing System with the UNESCO IOC. Looking ahead, AI offers real opportunities to improve and democratize forecasting and putting tailored information in the hands of countries and decision makers who previously couldn't access expensive supercomputing facilities. But AI is also only as good as the observations that it learns from, and so better and trusted data remains the foundation. And as the High-Level Political Forum reminds us, no single institution institution can build resilient agri-food systems alone. WMO provides the forecasts and climate services that help countries anticipate risk. FAO, together with AFAD, WFP, and many other partners, help to translate that information to enable action. And as this El Niño develops, our collective challenge is to ensure that countries not only have the information to anticipate the risk, but also the partnerships to act upon it. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much, Laura, for focusing a lot on El Niño and the high confidence, how extreme heat is a particular risk, but also a drier average than average in certain regions. You shared with us how WMO is doing these monthly El Niño updates, how the last El Niño was 11 years ago, and since then we've just been seeing warmer and warmer world, that the patterns won't necessarily follow the patterns they've usually done that. So, we're a bit in uncharted territory, but the high confidence in the forecast provides time for countries to prepare. However, there are many countries that need to strengthen their seasonal forecasting, and there's financing gaps in this, and as well as some I would say, inequalities in systems in terms of locations. A lot of the objective of this was also focused on opportunities, and you brought in the opportunities that are there from AI, but these need to be underpinned with solid data. And again, once again, this has been driven home by all of you, the issue of partnerships and how it's important we all work together in order to strengthen our agri-food systems.

Thank you.

system. Thank you very much. Now, I will pass to an interactive segment where we have an opportunity to ask some questions from the floor. I will note we originally had 15 minutes, but we will only have 10 minutes in this. I see Mr. Stojan Čokovančanov from the European and Economic and Social Committee who would like to take the floor. Sorry about your name.

Over to you.

Don't worry, I'm used to it, don't worry. So, thank you very much. First, thank you very much for the invitation. Thank you very much for the presentation. This is really timely, very timely to focus on this. Well, I agree with everything said, but let me bring something that maybe it's a little bit overseen, and I would say, I would call this like a silent killer, and this is the lack of generational renewal. The average age of the European farmer is 57 years. So it's not a threat that it's really like El Niño or something that is in the next couple of hours might happen. No, but this is something that is growing and it's coming and it's here. And why? Because actually the farmer's income in Europe is 40% from the average income. So it's very difficult to attract the young generation to a farm to work 7 days, 24 hours almost, especially in the livestock breeding, and to earn 40% from his friends around. And in Japan, I think it's 63 or 65. That means even worse than comparing with Europe. So I think this is something that it's maybe the bigger elephant in the room, but we are not focusing that much because it's not a kind of pressing issue. So how are we going to— but because you mentioned the transformative systems and how to transform the system. Agriculture is very conservative in general by default. It's very difficult to kind of change the system with somebody my age because I'm the average age of the farmer in Europe. You know, when we start speaking about regenerative practices or how to lower the PPP, use, then, you know, most of the farmers are saying, well, listen, there is no time to change for me because until I get the first results in 9 or 12 years, it's going to be already time for retirement. So what would be your comment?

I'll try to take a few comments and queries from the floor before we pass Anybody else? I don't see any. I think, Mr. Forrester, over to you.

Can you hear okay?

Yeah.

So my name is Thomas Forrester. I live and work here in New York, but I work with UN-Habitat. I've worked in the past with FAO, and I want to thank you for your presentation. Presentation, Máximo Toledo. Very, very good and very alarming. And I think, you know, those short, medium, and long-term policy actions are all in the very near future. I think the urgency of that threat analysis, as seen in that presentation, actually demands new ways of working across levels of government. And I haven't heard this brought up here for local Thank you. I think we hear of the energy and agency, and a lot of it is around food systems. And I'll just mention the rising interest in urban-rural alliances. There's only one target in the SDG targets that speaks about integrated urban, peri-urban, and rural planning for sustainable development. It's not in SDG 2. There is nothing subnational in SDG 2. There's no food in SDG 11. The New Urban Agenda solves that a little bit with bringing those together. I think that if you have any— I know FAO is working with local and subnational governments now, and this is really good, but I think it's not coming into the discourse at this level, the importance of the agency of local governments who are on the front lines of all these threats that you described so clearly.

Thank you. Both of you. So maybe the— I'll let you choose. Go ahead, please. If you can introduce yourself also, thank you.

An observer.

Okay.

I'm Madeline Butler, and I'm an observer here with the ELCA. And I was wondering, you mentioned briefly the Cuts to the Ocean Observatories initiative. I was wondering what ideas you might have for increasing resiliency in the system. moving from an individual researcher's project to a more systemic solution there.

Good afternoon. My name is Cristina Leon, and I represent the Utah International Mountain Forum at the Utah Valley University, a member of the Mountain Partnership. At UVU, students advocate for sustainable mountain development through the student-engaged learning model by participating in community service, research, and advocacy for the Sustainable Development Goals. As a Brazilian immigrant, serving alongside my classmates has shown me how students can become meaningful contributors to the SDGs. I'd like to thank the panelists for today's insightful discussion, and my question is, what advice would you give students who want to contribute meaningfully to international food security and sustainability efforts? Thank you very much.

I'm going to hand it over to Maximo, and then I'll hand it over to Laura because there's a specific question that you— Maximo, over to you.

Happy to. Thank you. On the sustainability of the ocean observing system, there are a couple of solutions that we're, that we're working on. One has actually been spearheaded by the European Commission. They announced an OceanEye initiative around about in March, and there will be a significant event here during High Level Week where they're launching an Ocean Alliance to really bring together as many countries as possible, but also philanthropies and private sector to recognize the lack of sustainability in the ocean observing system and to build build an alliance to work, to agree to work together and to better coordinate. Also through the Global Ocean Observing System, we have an initiative called 10,000 Ships, which was launched at the last UN Oceans Conference. And it really is working with private sector to try and ensure that as many ships, 10,000 plus at least, agree to have these observing network observing stations and monitors added to their own ships as well, which really obviously helps to improve the coverage across the globe. So there are a few specific ways, but, you know, all efforts are really very welcome. And maybe just, you know, whilst I have the floor on the advice to students, so as you can see, you know, usually in the UN, most of the experts that you'll you'll meet with are, you know, from diplomacy or other different types of backgrounds, but I would really advocate for science as well to be part of that. So many of the different initiatives and meetings that I'm involved in, there's always a call to have better science, you know, policy interfaces. I don't think we have enough of them yet, and my background is in meteorology, and I would really recommend moving into that way as well. Thanks.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you very much for the questions. Let me go backwards and start with the advice to students. So a few days ago, I was in FAO hearing questions coming from youth on how they can participate in the political process of decision. And sitting in the panel, there was a young lady, that has been working on the role of the youth. We have an Office of Youth and Women in FAO. So my first reaction to the young person asking the question was, do your homework. I spent 40 years of my life working like crazy. Study and do it. But then I find out by the response of this lady, which was a super good response, is that her way of doing it was that she learned something from this youth office and the youth coalition that we have in FAO, but then she went back to her country and tried to see how, with her expertise, because she was trained, she could help local communities. And she found a way to do it, and she found that what she has learned helped to implement things. And then she came back and tried to scale this up through the mechanisms that we have. So then my way of thinking has changed a little bit. Nobody needs to go through the same process that we normally have gone in the past. There could be ways to leapfrog and to move faster, and that's where I think young people can play that role, and I think it's really important. So my view is, be open to leapfrog. I think that's the way to go, but always, please, be very careful that you use evidence as solid as possible. That's really important. So that would be my advice. Now, linked to the generational problem, I always think that I am youthful still and young, despite I am not, similar to you. But I have seen that I think it matters a lot about incentives and how incentives are aligned. So what you are observing in Europe, what we are observing in Japan, what we are observing in the US, is very different to what we are observing in Chile, what we are observing in Peru. To what we're observing in Vietnam and in China. So I think that the incentives could be wrong, and that is what's not creating this dynamism to attract the young people into the agri-food systems. Let me give you the example of my country, Peru. Peru now has full employment in the coast on agribusiness and agriculture. We export everything. If you go to the supermarket here, I'm sure you can buy Peruvian avocados, Peruvian sparrows, the same in Europe. Now, the interesting part of that is that it's the best-paid sector in the economy right now. So agribusiness is the highest-paid sector in the economy. And if you look at the production, which initially started in the coast, now is expanding to the Andes because of the different climate zones, all of these are young people coming from agrarian universities, from technical universities that are working in that sector. So the incentives are aligned. We don't have distortions. We don't have this type. We are export-oriented. So I think the incentives matter a lot. I think in most of the developed OECD countries you have a lot of comfort zones because of the mechanisms that you provide to the farmers, which make them not need to be able to create this renovation that you are seeing in other parts of the world. So I think we need to look carefully at the incentives and what is happening in those countries. Second, what we learn a lot, especially in parts which are more complex, rural parts far away with no connectivity and so on, is that the old farmers want to learn from the young people, and they understand that the young people can have access to digital technologies, can understand better because they are better educated, no? And upward generational mobility of information works. And we tested that in Uganda, we also tested in Peru, and it worked very well, meaning I provide information to farmers through their kids, through digital technologies and the kids. The point is a combination of both. I don't think it's a good idea to replace the knowledge of the farmers, which could be 50 years or more. I think we need to complement and bridge the young with the older generations, but especially to create the proper incentives. I think we need to reassess the incentives on how to make this sector attractive. Now, this is a complex sector, as I showed. It's not an easy sector, it's a risky sector, but when you have risks, you can have bigger returns. So that's the way we need to think, we need to think a little bit differently. Now, regarding the local governments and the urban-rural dimension, I don't know if you are aware, but rurality is defined country by country. It is not a generic concept. If I look at rurality in India, the definition is very different to rurality In other parts of the world, the same with China and so on. So this rural-urban discrete definition is very ambiguous, so we treat it as a continuum. All of our work now is looking at the urban-rural continuum. Why? Because value chains will cross to urban areas for sure, because they need energy, they need electricity, but urban areas are the core of it. And local communities matter a lot, especially if your countries are decentralised. Many of our activities on investment plans in many of the countries we are working under an initiative we have in Hand in Hand, is also with provinces, with local governments. They are the ones that want to move forward, and normally they will stay for a longer period than the president of the country. So I think it's useful to work with local communities. It's useful to understand the continuum of rural-urban and the process of urbanization, but also how agriculture is crossing that border and how we can accelerate that process of investment and integration. Because again, rural-urban is just a statistic, based on some parameters that somebody decided to put in place, which are normally based on infrastructure access or could be based on population density, so many different ways of measuring rural-urban. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you very much to our speakers and panelists and for the questions. I think we had a very rich debate. This is very focused on the current situation, but also very linked to some of the SDGs we are examining at this HLPS, for example, 6 and 7. And also, there was a mention of SDG 11 in here, the urban-rural continuum, as Maximo just explained. And there was a through line, I think, throughout of SDG 17, that partnerships SDG, which is so important to all of us. So now, without further ado, I'm going to hand over to my friend and colleague Courtney Hood, who is the Head of Office of the International Fund for Agricultural Development and Liaison Office here in New York. And I would mention that together with FAO, we co-chair a sub-working group on the Middle East crisis and development, where we focus on food systems and supply chain issues. With that, I'm going to hand it over to Courtney to take us to close this event. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much. Thank you, Angelica. Thank you to FAO for convening us and really for your leadership in providing such in-depth, constant analysis throughout the crisis. Excellencies, as we conclude today, I would risk repeating a few things. But I think it's important to underline some of the key messages from today and share a little bit from our perspective. I think the message has emerged clearly throughout this conversation that today's challenges are not isolated crises. They're symptoms of deeper structural vulnerabilities in our agri-food systems. Over the past 5 years, we've witnessed successive shocks from the pandemic the conflict in Ukraine, to the recent disruptions affecting the energy markets, fertilizer supply chains, which we've discussed today. At the same time, climate risks continue to intensify. The strong El Niño is expected to take place this year. But regardless of where the crisis begins, they're felt first and hardest by the poorest, and many of them are small-scale farmers and rural entrepreneurs. Rising energy and fertilizer costs, disrupted markets, and increasing uncertainty often translate directly into lower production, reduced incomes, and greater food insecurity. So, we consistently see that what appears to be a temporary disruption often reveals a much deeper systemic vulnerability. The question then is not just how we respond to The next crisis. It's how we reduce the structural exposure that allows one shock after another to undermine livelihoods, food security, and economic stability. This requires a shift in how we work. It also requires a shift in the way we finance development, and that was discussed a little bit today as well. This requires that we invest earlier on. Ali spoke about this from WFP, more preventative financing, but also more predictable financing over the long term, building resilience before crises occur rather than responding after they do. For IFAD, that investment begins at the first mile, and that's where food is produced, where the risks and the rewards are greatest, and where resilience ultimately determines the strength of the entire food system. This means investing not only in farmers, but in functioning markets, in rural enterprises, in local institutions and sustainable production systems. It means helping countries reduce their dependence on vulnerable external supply chains through improved soil fertility management, more efficient fertilizer use, and locally adapted innovations that increase productivity while reducing costs. And environmental pressures. At EFAD, we're looking to put this approach into practice across our global portfolio. This is through enabling EFAD-financed projects to respond rapidly when crises occur while maintaining their long-term development objectives, working through our loan portfolio to invest in strengthened local financial systems, supporting governments to build enabling environments for private investment while using our own balance sheet to increase direct investments in key private sector actors at the first mile, providing access to capital without crowding out private finance. And lastly, through our sovereign bond issuance and other measures, where we're mobilizing private capital at scale for the first mile. We're working with our member states to scale up many of these approaches through our coming replenishment cycle, which is eFAD 14. And this is also our last before 2030, so it's key for accelerating progress. But we know, and I think we've heard today, that no single entity can achieve the needed transformation alone. The scale of these challenges require that we find solutions in partnerships. This was, as Angelica mentioned, a through line in in our discussion today, bringing together governments, multilateral development banks, UN agencies, bilateral partners, research institutions, the private sector, and farmers themselves. I think Your Excellency from Malawi underlined this around shared priorities. We're starting close to home in the UN system, as Angelica mentioned. We're very pleased to work together with FAO on the UN Working Group on Food Systems and Supply Chains as part of the Middle East response. And this is one way that we're strengthening our collective risk monitoring and improving coordinated responses across the international system. As we look ahead to COP31, to preparations for the 2027 SDG Summit, and the broader effort to accelerate implementation of the SDGs, we have the opportunity to mobilize support and action beyond managing recurrent crises and towards addressing their underlying causes. And to, again, to quote His Excellency from Malawi, really transform agri-food systems into a catalyst for growth. I think that's where we're all working towards together. So, we look forward to continue scaling up our own support in partnership to make this shift happen and to deliver on our common commitments. So, thank you very much.

Just one small last word to thank all of you again, our speakers, panelists, all the questions, all the participants, and also to the team from the FAO Liaison Office with the UN in New York who worked very hard in putting this all together.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.