UN Secretary-General António Guterres on the situation concerning the Strait of Hormuz - Security Council Media Stakeout
Ladies and gentlemen of the media, The Middle East crisis is lumbering into its third month. Despite a fragile ceasefire, the consequences grow dramatically worse with each passing hour. I am deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights and freedoms in the area of the Strait of Hormuz. Impeding the delivery of oil, gas, fertilizer, and other critical commodities. Disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing, and food markets. And strangling the global economy. As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price – even if a few are reaping huge profits. The pain will be felt for a long time to come. Consider these three scenarios, based on forecasts from multiple sources: First, one where restrictions are lifted today. Supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices. This year's global economic growth will still drop – from 3.4 to 3.1 percent. Global inflation – which had been declining – will climb from 3.8 to 4.4 percent. Global merchandise trade growth will shrink – from 4.7 percent last year to roughly 2 percent – with some meaningful supply chain interruptions. And a world still reeling from the shocks of a pandemic and the war in Ukraine will endure further economic distress. This is the best-case scenario. Now consider a second one, where disruption drags on through midyear. Growth falls to 2.5 percent. Inflation hits 5.4 percent. 32 million people are pushed into poverty. Fertilizers run low, and crops yields fall short. 45 million more people will face extreme hunger. Hard-won development gains are reversed overnight. In a third scenario, severe disruptions persist through the end of the year. Inflation skyrockets past 6 percent. Growth plummets to 2 percent. Immense suffering takes hold, especially among the world's most vulnerable populations. And we confront the spectre of a global recession – with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability. These consequences are not cumulative. They are exponential. The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage. And the higher the cost to humanity. Developing countries will be hit the hardest, as crushing debt impedes their ability to cope. With lost jobs, deeper poverty, and more hunger. The crisis has already locked in losses for months to come. Every day that ships cannot move escalates these costs and amplifies their reverberations across the global economy. My message to all parties is clear: Navigational rights and freedoms must be restored immediately, as affirmed by the Security Council in Resolution 2817. Open the Strait. Let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again. That requires more than physical reopening. It requires shipping to be safe, predictable and insurable. Simultaneously, I urge all parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the ceasefire. I have remained in close contact with a number of parties, as has my Personal Envoy Jean Arnault. All our interlocutors – independent of their different perspectives – recognize the need to work towards a peaceful, comprehensive, and durable resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the UN system is working to mitigate the impact of the current crisis. The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, is developing a framework to securely evacuate ships and seafarers from the conflict zone provided it is safe to do so. And the head of the UN Office of Project Services, Jorge Moreira da Silva, who is leading the UN Task Force for the Strait of Hormuz, will be heading to the region to continue his active consultations for a possible humanitarian corridor to be ready if the worst-case scenarios materialize. Dear members of the media, Now is the time for dialogue. For solutions that pull us back from the brink. And for measures that can open a pathway to peace. The world is waiting. Thank you.
Machine-readable formats: Plain text · JSON
Transcripts available through this tool are created by using automatic speech recognition and are not official records nor official documents of the United Nations. Official records and official documents are available on the Official Document System of the United Nations. Learn more
Good morning.
The Secretary General will make some opening remarks and then we'll take a few questions. Thank you. A very good morning, ladies and gentlemen of the media. The Middle east crisis is lumbering into its third month. Despite a fragile ceasefire, the consequences grow dramatically worse with each passing hour. I am deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights and freedoms in the area of the Strait, of impeding the delivery of oil, gas, fertilizer and other critical commodities, disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing and food markets and strangling the global economy. As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price, even if a few are reaping huge profits. The pain will be felt for a long time to come. Consider these three scenarios based on forecasts from multiple sources. First, when restrictions are lifted today, supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices. This year's global economic growth will still drop from 3.4 to 3.1%. Global inflation, which had been declining, will climb from 3.8 to 4.4%. And global merchandise trade growth will shrink from 4.7% last year to roughly 2%. With some meaningful supply chain interruptions. And the world, still reeling from the shocks of a pandemic and the war in Ukraine, will endure further economic distress. And this is the best case scenario. Now consider the second one, where disruption drags on through mid year. Growth falls to 2.5%, inflation eats 5.4%, 32 million people are pushed into poverty, fertilizers run low and crops yields fall short. And 45 million more people will face extreme hunger. Hard won development gains are reversed overnight. Now, in a third scenario, with severe disruptions persisting through the end of the year, inflation skyrockets past 6%, growth plummets to 2%, and immense suffering takes hold, especially among the world's most vulnerable populations. And we confront the specter of a global recession with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability. These consequences are not cumulative, they are exponential. And the longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage and the higher the cost to humanity. Developing countries will be hit the hardest as crushing debt impedes their ability to cope with lost jobs, deeper poverty and more hunger. The crisis has already locked in losses for months to come. And every day that ships cannot move escalates these costs and amplifies the reverberations across the global economy. And so my message to all parties is clear. Navigational rights and freedoms must be restored immediately, in line with the security council resolution 2817. Open the strait, let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again. And that requires more than physical reopening. It requires shipping to be safe, predictable and insurable. And simultaneously, I urge all parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the ceasefire. I have remained in close contact with a number of parties, as has my personal envoy, Jean Arnaud. All our interlocutors, independent of their different perspectives, recognize the need to work towards a peaceful, comprehensive and durable resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the UN system is working to mitigate the impact of the current crisis. The Secretary General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, is developing a framework to securely evacuate ships and seafarers from the conflict zone, provided it is safe to do so and have the UN Office of Project Services. Georges Murreira da Silva, who is leading the UN task Force for the Strait of Hormuz, will be heading to the region to continue his active consultations for a possible humanitarian corridor to be ready if the worst case scenarios materialize. Dear members of the media, now is the time for dialogue, for solutions that pull us back from the brink and for measures that can open a pathway to peace. The world is waiting and I thank you. Thank you, Sherwood.
Secretary General, I hope you'll forgive me for being a bit off topic today. The United States, our colleagues at Devex are reporting. The United States has sent memos to diplomats in New York in which it says that it aims to pay a significant portion of its 2026 dues to the UN's regular budget on condition that the Secretary General implement the following quick win reforms. These include overhauling the UN pension system, ending long distance business class travel for some senior and all mid level professionals and imposing additional cuts in posts in the UN senior ranks. It also says that it aims to pay a significant portion of its peacekeeping contribution if there are 10% cuts across the board at UN peacekeeping missions. Your reaction, sir?
The money we are talking about is referred to assessed contributions. Assessed contributions are an obligation of Member States.
They are non negotiable. Obviously, we will do our best to pursue our reforms unity and to make sure that we make this organization as effective and as cost effective and as able to deliver for the people we care for. But these are two separate things. Thank you, Kirsten.
Thank you, Secretary General. Can you tell us who Mr. Da Silva will be meeting with in the region? Does he have appointments set up? Who will he be speaking speaking with? And is he getting. What kind of reception is he getting from the parties.
He has been meeting with?
The representatives of all the countries that are relevant, from the United States and Iran to countries of the Gulf to countries of negotiating. The negotiating. The mediator team led by Pakistan and he will be visiting Oman, Iran and countries in the Gulf in order to explain the projects that we have, which,
let's be clear, are not to replace freedom of navigation. They are in the worst case scenario where everything is blocked, to see if
there is any chance to have, for humanitarian purposes, some kind of corridor.
But our objective is total freedom of
navigation in the area of the Strait of Hormuz.
Thank you, Mr. Secretary General. My name is Sinan Tunstamir from the Amargi. Given your experience with peace negotiations around the world, how do you assess the current prospects prospects for the Kurdish Turkish peace process? And we believe it can succeed what previously was failed. And in addition, you were in Turkey last month. I wonder if you talked to the Turkish authorities regarding the peace process, like with the Turkish President.
Sorry, I didn't understand the second part
about the Kurdish peace process to President Erdogan.
Well, I consider that the peace process that took place between the state of Turkey and the PKK is an extremely important development. I think that a full normalization of that question would be to the benefit of not only Turkey, not only the Turkish Kurds, but of the whole region.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
