Celeste Saulo (WMO) – Press Briefing on El Niño

Good morning. Welcome to the press briefing of the UN Information Service. Today is Tuesday, 2nd of June, and as you know, we are starting this briefing a little bit earlier because we have the pleasure and the honor to have with us the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Mrs. Celeste Saulo, who is accompanied by Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO. As you know, we will start this briefing by discussing the WMO update on El Niño, and as usual, afterwards we will continue with the regular press briefing. As you see, as you have seen for sure, it's a very, very long list of topics, so we will ask for your indulgence. They are all very interesting stories, and we hope you'll be with us until the end to cover them. So without further ado, I'd like to give the floor to Secretary-General Saulo for her introductory remarks, and then we will take questions.

Mrs. Saulo, thank you very much. Members of the media, the World Meteorological Organization's latest El Niño/La Niña update confirms that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to influence weather and climate patterns around the world in the months ahead. Our experts estimate an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge in the period between June July and August 2026. This likelihood increases to around 90% through the remainder of the forecast period, that is September-December. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate with the possibility of becoming strong. This update matters because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns. A warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the climate system, which can serve to worsen climate extremes including heat waves and heavy rainfall. The strong El Niño of 2023-2024 added a temporary warming effect on top of an already long-term warming trend. This contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. So what impacts can we expect to see? It is important to note that no two El Niño events are exactly alike. Impacts can also vary from region to region, and other climate drivers also play an important role. In some regions, it is likely we will see heavy rainfall and floods. In others, drought conditions. In others, increased or reduced extremes, heat or tropical cyclone activity. We can also expect an increased risk of extreme heat with higher temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns adding further stress on human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and energy systems. This is why WMO supported regional and national climate outlooks, which assess the likely implications of climate drivers on the most pertinent socioeconomic sectors in each region, will be especially critical in decision-making and preparedness in the coming months to come. Extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face, and El Niño event could intensify the threat on average. More heat-related illness, wider spread of vector-borne diseases, increased pressure on food and water systems, and communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits. The footprint of an El Niño travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions. But El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster. Forecasts such as what WMO presents today are a call to action. With reliable and accurate forecasts and effective early warnings, we can anticipate impacts, take steps to reduce risks, and act before hazards become crises. We must intensify our efforts to build our early warning systems, including those hazards amplified by El Niño. 128 countries in the world now report that they have multi-hazard early warning systems in place. Our goal must be to ensure that everybody has access to science-based advanced intelligence so that communities are empowered to manage risks and preserve lives and property, to make decisions about crop strategies, to manage heat and drought, and to prepare for storms and cyclones. Such forecasts also importantly enable humanitarian agencies and disaster management authorities to take action early before hazards escalate into crisis, protecting vulnerable people and strengthening preparedness everywhere. With stronger observation networks, better forecasting science and information, available to everybody, we can help keep economies strong and thriving even in adverse weather and climate conditions. The signals are clear, so too must be our actions as governments, as the United Nations, as forecasters, as humanitarians, as healthcare professionals, and as leaders in the financial sector. With El Niño on the horizon, we must prepare for its impacts and build resilience. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Secretary-General Saulo. And I'd like to conclude this introductory part by reading to you the message that has been released by the Secretary-General on the occasion of this update. And you should have received it, you have it in your mailboxes. It's a video message. So the Secretary-General says, I thank the World Meteorological Organization for this this vital new update. The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis, ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all. And that concludes the statement of the Secretary-General on this occasion. And I'd like now to open the floor to questions, and I start with the room. Christian Ullrich, the German news agency.

Q: Good morning. Thank you for the briefing. You and your predecessor have been banging on for years now about early warning systems. I would like to know whether the installation is going well, or whether the dearth of new money finance from the US and others is having an impact on progress in this respect.

Thank you. Thank you very much for your question. And yes, the Early Warnings for All initiative was launched in 2022, and it's— we are having progress, significant progress, I would say. And I think it's not controversial in the world agenda that the world needs more early warning systems. And as I mentioned, 128 countries. This is more or less 60% of the world met services already report having early warning systems in place. But still, we have a lot of work ahead, and we are heavily relying on, on, on countries to really, uh, improve their capacities, uh, to make sure that we are all covered by early warning systems by 2027, as was the idea of the launch in 2022. Thank you.

So no, no money issues? There is enough money to do that?

Well, climate finance is, is not at its peak, I would say, but early warnings has, has been and still is a priority. So of course we need more resource mobilization in terms of, of funding those countries that need the support, but I would say that we need to improve that, but that is not the only limit in this case. Also, the implementation is also, I would say, a challenge for the world.

Thank you very much. Isabel Sacco, the Spanish news agency EFE.

Buenos días. Good morning. As you Latin American region is one of the most impacted regions by El Niño. Part of, I think, north Argentina and Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, there are droughts or, on the other extreme, rains. So I would like to know, after So many years experimenting the El Niño, you know, every 2, 3, 4 years. How much advanced is the preparation? Because every year we see this— sorry, not every year. Every time the El Niño appears, we see disasters, disaster affecting sometimes thousands of people, which houses are flooded or agriculture is affected. So how much things have changed, how much the region is prepared for El Niño, and on the other hand, what is still lacking in the region to be fully, more or less fully prepared for this phenomenon?

Thank you.

Buenos días. Muchas gracias por la pregunta. I will answer part of this question and then I will give the floor to my colleague. Certainly, science has improved a lot and we learned a lot since the early days of El Niño. And I would say our continent, Latin America, is, is more and more prepared. But particularly, you mentioned the impacts in Ecuador, Peru. Certainly, they are the most impacted in terms of how the warming waters affect their fisheries, for example, and also increased rains. And then you have different patterns over northern Brazil or southeastern South America with different patterns of precipitation moving from enhanced precipitation towards drought in northern Brazil, for example. The continent is prepared. I would say that still extreme events are on top of what El Niño drives. And extreme events are becoming more and more extreme, I would say. So sometimes it's very difficult to be prepared to an extreme— for an extreme that is out of your statistics. So the— we saw rains in Brazil, for example, last year that were impressive. And devastating in, in many parts of southern Brazil. So I would say that we understand El Niño, we can prepare much better for El Niño thanks to science and to the investment of many countries to be well prepared. But on top of El Niño, you have extreme events, and those extreme events are requiring more and more— that's why the Early Warning for All initiative connects so well. And in particular, when a warming climate like the one we have with El Niño peaking temperatures is even more challenging for us. Wilfran, would you like to add on that?

Yes, thank you very much for your question. Maybe one little element to add here, what has evolved since the previous event of El Niño, I think the collaboration has becoming stronger, collaboration among the country, because the The result the Secretary-General just introduced is a consensus of a number of centers, so it's an international collaboration where we have global producing centers, regional centers, and also national entities. The idea is that with that information, which is, let's say, so robust in terms of science, what we are hoping is that for region and country to be the vehicle where this information is refined. In other words, we provide the context,. But the key implication of El Niño, the key improvement, comes through the Regional Climate Outlook Forum, those entities where they discuss regionally the impact, and also the national level. In other words, what has really improved is the way we channel information from the global entity to the national services and vice versa.

Thank you very much, Alexandre. You have a follow-up? Go ahead.

Thank you. Yesterday, clear is what you were saying in your previous answer is that in addition of the consequences of climate change in terms of extreme events, we now should add the consequences of El Niño for the next few months or, and next year. Is that correct?

Yes, we have a trend that is, that is affecting the whole world with more extreme events. And now on top of that, we will have a signal driven by El Niño and other oscillations of the natural climate variability. And we know that associated with El Niño, there are some patterns that we should expect. So it's a combination. That's why I would say my colleague mentioned so clear that, uh, so clearly that it's the global coordination, the regional work at the level of every single region, and then the national authorities. That is the right connection to make sure that the population and the stakeholders are well informed about the specific impacts of this particular El Niño event.

Thank you very much. Alexandre Grobois, pardon, Alexandre Grobois, French news agency. AFP.

Hi, thank you for this briefing. Regarding the potential effects of El Niño and the rise of temperature, could you name the main regions that could be particularly affected by extreme events like drought and flood? And secondly, if I may, were you able to model the duration of the phenomenon El Niño this year, please?

Yes, there is a very nice infograph that I— we can show with you afterwards to highlight the expected impacts worldwide in terms of precipitation enhancement or deficits and temperature. But maybe The most common ones are enhanced precipitation in southeastern South America, South U.S., parts of Ecuador and Peru, and then parts of East Africa and parts of Europe and parts of southern Asia, Southeast Asia, with enhanced precipitation and then with diminished precipitation or droughts. You have strong impacts in Central and Northern America— Central and Northern South America. Then in Central Africa and South Africa also you can expect droughts. And then all over parts of Australia and the maritime country— continent Southeast Asia, in particular Indonesia, where you expect less precipitation. And then as a result of that, you can expect also several patterns in terms of temperature. But I think that that is in terms of the impacts that we— I would say on average, because as I mentioned from the very beginning, every single El Niño has its own flavors. And that's why it's so important to keep monitoring and understanding what kind of El Niño we have ahead. But for the, the What are the consistencies between forecasts and how we are seeing it ahead? I will pass the floor to my colleague.

Thank you very much for your question. So our— today, our ability to anticipate the evolution of El Niño event last 6 months. So basically, we are able to forecast with some certainty the situation for the coming 6 months. That's why in the statement by the Secretary-General, it's indicated that we have 80% chance for the El Niño event to established between June and August, and if we go up to November, we can reach 90% and more. So that's the 6 months, and beyond, we need to maybe every month restart the simulation to refine or to confirm the situation.

Yeah, you have a follow-up?

Go ahead. Yeah, no, just a quick one. So can we expect for monthly updates or Yeah, maybe I can add.

Yes, um, what the, the community, the global community does, and WMO coordinates that, is these monthly updates. And just to complement, um, in terms of what has been mentioned, uh, usually the El Niño is expected to peak between November and February, uh, so This is something we need to pay attention to. And then the other element is that we are currently at what we call an— a more uncertain window, uh, during what is, uh, the, uh, springtime in the Northern Hemisphere, the autumn season in the Southern Hemisphere. So we expect that the consistency among forecasts increases from the upcoming month. So the forecast after June will be more, we expect, more consistent among each other.

Thank you very much. Let's go to the platform. Jamil Chade, ICL Notícias Brasil.

Yes, can you hear me?

Good morning. Go ahead, Jamil, we can hear you.

Yes, Madam, a question on Brazil. You mentioned the northeast of Brazil, but can you also explain what would be the consequence, for example, for the northern part of Brazil, meaning the Amazon? How much would that disrupt, for example, the fight against wildfires, for example? And also in the southeast, big cities like São Paulo, Rio, how they should get prepared for torrential rains that normally follow El Niño in Brazil. Thank you.

Yes, specifically going to Brazil, I think that we need to pay attention to hydropower generation, usually in the northeast, the drought in northeast Brazil, the drought uses to be severe. So water is an issue in general. And as you may know, the Amazon Basin has been, uh, yes, under stress for many, many months. And it was recovering. So it's also— it's not only about the current event, is where you come from. So when you come from normal conditions is one is one scenario, but when you come from stressed conditions, it's another. That's why we emphasize the need to really coordinate between global, regional, and local agencies. And there is a strong capacity in Brazil, and they are very well coordinated to be prepared for that. And as you also noticed, yes, the southeastern part of Brazil, including São Paulo and and Rio usually experience floods, intense rains, and landslides. That would be the other consequence. So if we speak about cascading impacts, it's important to recognize or realize that from something that is affecting the tropical Pacific, which is a warming event in the ocean, then translate into circulation of the atmosphere, special patterns that then drive enhanced rain or decreased rain. And with that, you have impacts on trade, hydropower, quality of water, floods, uh, risk management, and so on. Is— this is what we call cascading impacts. They go from the variability of the climate into the economy and security of people. That's why this information is so relevant, so important, and it's important to visualize the role of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services because they are monitoring the situation. And as I said before, it's not the same coming from a dry season where you have a lot of material to be affected by a wildfire than coming from a wet season before. So those are the kind of assessments that regional climate centers that are coordinated under WMO are currently doing to make sure that we make the right recommendations for the— every single region.

Thank you very much. Olivia Le Poitvin, Reuters.

Hello, thank you very much. Um, just two questions if I may. Thank you so much for this briefing. Uh, it's certainly really interesting and important. Um, my first question is, is can the extreme weather during El Niño events, uh, be viewed as a, as a kind of taste of what the climate will look like in, in future years as, um, global warming worsens? But also, secondly, is it true that this could be one of the strongest El Niño in decades? Just some national agencies have pointed to that, but I noted in the WMO report that currently the wording is moderate or possibly strong. So I'm just wondering why maybe your forecast is perhaps a bit, a bit more maybe moderate or prudent rather than some national forecasters. Thank you.

Thank you. I will start with this clarification and then I will move to my colleague. It's very important, particularly, and that's why I'm here with you, the media, to make sure that the information is precise. And for, for WMO, which is working and gathering the, the results from all the global producing centers, and it's an expert advice combining models with expert understanding of what is happening now, we can speak about likelihood, 80% likelihood of El Niño, and also, uh, very high chances to be moderate, but we can expect a strong one. In terms of the terminology, we want to be very precise. We will speak about moderate or strong when we are sure about that. I mentioned before this window of uncertainty, uh, that usually until May and the beginning of June, uh, we can have more uncertainty. Uncertainty means that models are spread So the signal is spread among different outcomes. If you, if you look at the worst outcome, you may be speaking about a very strong El Niño, but this is an ensemble of forecasts, and that is why the, the robust message of WMO has to be taken as the, as the official messaging. Because the spread is large. So there are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño while others are doing so. So that's why we need to move into the less uncertain place where models will tend to converge. It's likely that they will tend to converge and then we can assess the strength of this particular El Niño. Wilfran, would you like to add to that?

Not much, except to say that an important element here is to know our horizon for, let's say, accuracy of our forecast. We said 6 months, right? And we also know El Niño, the timing of the peak is uncertain. And the third element was the predictability barrier, and we know that at this time of the year, we are uncertain on the magnitude of the intensity. If you combine all of this, you have an envelope of scenario where the strength will go from moderate to strong, and that's why we are cautious, or as you said, prudent with the wording, simply because this is a consensus by the experts, and that's what we are trying to reflect here.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. We have time for 2 more questions, and we will go then to our other speakers. So I give the floor to Maya Plentz, The Brief.

Thank you very much for taking my question, Madam Secretary-General. Pleasure to see you. My question is regarding how the WMO is energizing the conversation around finance for development. What kind of conferences and reports is WMO investing in to bring the impact finance investors community to the fold so they understand better what's at stake in terms of financing early warning systems in their countries or globally? Can you give us examples in Brazil or Latin America?

Yes, thank you very much for that question because it brings the impact side of the story and how important is to translate what we see in the natural system or the climate variability into early action or anticipatory action. That implies in a way to mobilize resources before a catastrophe is expected. And that is part of the efforts that together with Red Cross and UNDRR and ITU, we are working on the Early Warnings for All initiative. It's exactly for doing what you are mentioning, to work with the financing sectors, the risk management sectors to make sure that they decide ahead and they put the resources ahead of the event. This is a cultural change. It's moving from reactive to proactive. This does not include only WMO but many other actors, and we are very active with those actors to make sure that we move into that preparatory phase and not reactive one. Thank you for that.

Thank you very much. Last question goes to you, Elaine.

Thank you very much, Madam Secretary-General. Um, you mentioned the risks of drought and wildfires in the Amazon. This is Elaine Fletcher from Health Policy Watch. Um, what about in other wildfire-prone areas such as southern Europe, the western parts of the United States, and Canada? How does the El Niño affect those risks?

Well, thank you for that question. I think Australia is another area where we should be paying a lot of attention because of the less water that is expected, more warming. So it's the ingredients are the worst for enhanced wildfires, and this has been the case on other El Niños. In terms of Europe, that is, the signal is not so clear. So we need to approach and see what's the previous or the preconditioning for wildfires. As you know, it's coming from dry months plus having enough fuel. When I say fuel is bio— by trees or biological components to be to be affected, and then of course the occurrence of the wildfire itself because of warming and, and other situations. Um, maybe Wilfran, you would like to expand on that? Thank you very much.

Um, I wanted to close, but I see Olivia has a follow-up. So Olivia, quickly, your follow-up.

Thank you. Sorry, it was just the first question of the two that I asked, which I think I think we didn't have a chance to address it, was just to what extent we can— to what extent extreme weather during El Niño events could be viewed as a taste of what is to come in terms of what the climate might look like in future years as global warming worsens.

Yes, thank you very much for your question. I think the overall element we need to bear in mind is that El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon, but it adds some warmth to the system. So usually after an El Niño event, let's say up to 12 months later, the temperature of the planet spikes. So basically, in a warming world, we can expect a lot of extremes. But again, that remains to be quantified. The important thing is that we need to be prepared for El Niño, because the situation will come with, in some place, heat waves, in other place, floods, droughts. But also, we need to make sure the information we provide is robust, and we need also to acknowledge that this is possible only because we have national services, which are the force beyond all the information, the knowledge we are providing to government to support the decision.

Thank you.

Thank you. I think, Hélène, you have the right to your follow-up. I think it's about the wildfires in North America. I don't know if you had answered her— this part of the question. Hélène, go ahead.

Yeah, just asking the same question about North America, Canada. We've seen really big wildfires over the past few years. So how, or does El Niño enhance the risks of wildfires in Canada and the Western US?

El Niño signal in Canada and Western US is not as clear as is in other parts of the world. So then, of course, we have some indications of less precipitation in the eastern coast of North America in general. And, but as I said before, there are several studies that are not necessarily pointing out in the same direction. That's why we cannot reply to that with, with a certainty in terms of what this El Niño will bring to Canada or the U.S. in terms of wildfires. That's why I pointed out also to the pre-existing conditions and, and, and, and the evolution of other elements of the climate variability.

So that concludes our part of this part of the briefing, this prequel. Thank you very much, Secretary-General Saulo. Thank you very much, Mr. Okya, to be with us today. Give us one minute of, uh, to say goodbye to Mrs. Saulo, and we will continue with the rest of the briefing. Next topic will be the the US-Israel and Iran conflict.