UN Secretary-General António Guterres on the situation concerning the Strait of Hormuz - Security Council Media Stakeout

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Ladies and gentlemen of the media, The Middle East crisis is lumbering into its third month. Despite a fragile ceasefire, the consequences grow dramatically worse with each passing hour. I am deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights and freedoms in the area of the Strait of Hormuz. Impeding the delivery of oil, gas, fertilizer, and other critical commodities. Disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing, and food markets. And strangling the global economy. As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price – even if a few are reaping huge profits. The pain will be felt for a long time to come. Consider these three scenarios, based on forecasts from multiple sources: First, one where restrictions are lifted today. Supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices. This year's global economic growth will still drop – from 3.4 to 3.1 percent. Global inflation – which had been declining – will climb from 3.8 to 4.4 percent. Global merchandise trade growth will shrink – from 4.7 percent last year to roughly 2 percent – with some meaningful supply chain interruptions. And a world still reeling from the shocks of a pandemic and the war in Ukraine will endure further economic distress. This is the best-case scenario. Now consider a second one, where disruption drags on through midyear. Growth falls to 2.5 percent. Inflation hits 5.4 percent. 32 million people are pushed into poverty. Fertilizers run low, and crops yields fall short. 45 million more people will face extreme hunger. Hard-won development gains are reversed overnight. In a third scenario, severe disruptions persist through the end of the year. Inflation skyrockets past 6 percent. Growth plummets to 2 percent. Immense suffering takes hold, especially among the world's most vulnerable populations. And we confront the spectre of a global recession – with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability. These consequences are not cumulative. They are exponential. The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage. And the higher the cost to humanity. Developing countries will be hit the hardest, as crushing debt impedes their ability to cope. With lost jobs, deeper poverty, and more hunger. The crisis has already locked in losses for months to come. Every day that ships cannot move escalates these costs and amplifies their reverberations across the global economy. My message to all parties is clear: Navigational rights and freedoms must be restored immediately, as affirmed by the Security Council in Resolution 2817. Open the Strait. Let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again. That requires more than physical reopening. It requires shipping to be safe, predictable and insurable. Simultaneously, I urge all parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the ceasefire. I have remained in close contact with a number of parties, as has my Personal Envoy Jean Arnault. All our interlocutors – independent of their different perspectives – recognize the need to work towards a peaceful, comprehensive, and durable resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the UN system is working to mitigate the impact of the current crisis. The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, is developing a framework to securely evacuate ships and seafarers from the conflict zone provided it is safe to do so. And the head of the UN Office of Project Services, Jorge Moreira da Silva, who is leading the UN Task Force for the Strait of Hormuz, will be heading to the region to continue his active consultations for a possible humanitarian corridor to be ready if the worst-case scenarios materialize. Dear members of the media, Now is the time for dialogue. For solutions that pull us back from the brink. And for measures that can open a pathway to peace. The world is waiting. Thank you.